Positioned for the home stretch

In the short analysis, all the different poll numbers, and their progression indicate that the Ron Paul campaign is positioned just about right, compared to Huckabee's progress as his name recognition increased. Huckabee has a pretty spotty record as Governor with taxes, immigration and spending and a few petty scandals. He'll have his record challenged in the next two to three weeks by Giuliani, Romney, Thompson and McCain campaigns. Dr. Paul continues unscathed since there's nothing to 'out' on him and he has no reason to attack Huckabee. He should rise in December and into January as religious conservatives start to look further for someone who has real family, spiritual and Constitutional foundations to inform his positions.

Dr. Paul has to break 10% about mid-December and, if the campaign could announce Mark Sanford as the VP pick between Thanksgiving and Christmas, at the latest, he would then go to at least 20% (probably higher) in general polling in January. That would allow the campaign to win 3 of the 5 January primaries and place in the top three of all January events. The January states are:

• Iowa: Jan 3 (caucus)
• Wyoming: Jan. 5th (caucus)
• New Hampshire: Jan. 8th (Primary)
• Michigan: Jan. 15th (Primary)
• South Carolina: Jan. 19th (Primary)
• Nevada: Jan. 19th (Primary)
• Florida Jan. 29th (Primary)

Then, Sanford's record as Governor bests Huckabee hands down. Sanford enjoys 55% overall approval in South Carolina and 72% among Republicans. The pairing is very strong. Without Sanford as a VP pick it will be a much harder uphill slog into January even with a money boost from Dec. 16th. However, Romney, Giuliani, Thompson and McCain will still split the establishment vote they have left in the general poll numbers of likely Republican voters. You can see by the general poll numbers the 'likely' voter is getting confused about their choices in the "top" tier.

If Dr. Paul indeed has the off-poll numbers this campaign indicates and his general poll numbers continue to rise from the current 8% into January (especially after Dec. 16th), we are sitting correctly there too. As long as the new registrations continue until Jan 5th in most of the Super Tuesday closed states and up to Feb 5th in open states (walk-ins) we have a heck of a shot.

But that Jan. 5th registration date is looming in the closed poll states. The mail-in Dec 5th registration change date is in two weeks. So we should be prepared to shift gears so folks know only to concentrate on Republican PC slots, delegate calling/mailing/walking from the 2006 list in their counties and no more attention paid to the registered-unaffiliated and other party voters. Republicans and eligible unregistered only.

Ron Paul: The Only Presidential Candidate to Challenge the American Empire